PROGRESS IN IOWA – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  When this campaign started, not too many people thought a Republican had a real chance to capture a Senate seat from Iowa.  Times have changed.  From The Hill: 

A new poll from Des Moines Register finds Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) leading Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) by 6 percentage points.

Ernst edged Braley 44% percent to 38 percent among likely voters in a race that has been considered deadlocked for months.

With less than 40 days until the Nov. 4 election, Ernst is ahead nearly 4-1 with rural voters, and is up double digits with independents.

The race between Ernst and Braley is considered one of the most competitive in the country and pivotal in the GOP's drive to win the Senate majority.

They're running to replace Democratic U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin, who's retiring after 30 years in office.

The Iowa Poll of 546 likely voters in the 2014 general election was conducted Sept. 21-24 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

COMMENT:  Good progress, but let's not get overconfident.  I expect the Democrats to wage a major scare campaign in October, targeting voters who will be made to think that their benefits will be taken away if they vote Republican.  It's an old device and can work.  We have to run every race as if we're 20 points behind.

September 28,  2014